The usual - National polls are bullshit, no national elections, yadda yadda.

But it’s been a week or so since I looked at the numbers:

AZ - Trump +2 to +6 This applies to unbiased polls like NYT/Sienna as well as biased polls like Trafalgar. It’s interesting that the unbiased polls show Trump with a bigger lead than the biased ones.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

NV - Toss up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +3 to +6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

GA - Trump +2 to +5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

NC - Trump +1 to +2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

PA - Harris +3 to +5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

MI - Toss Up - Tie, Harris +1 to +2, Trump +1 to +2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

WI - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Plotted on the map:

Moving PA to the Harris column NORMALLY gives her the win, however in THIS case, with GA, NC, and AZ going to Trump and MI and WI moving to toss up, that means Trump is 1 state away (except NV, NV is not enough) and Harris needs two (WI + MI gives her exactly 270 which is what we saw last time.)

I will say, quite a lot of these recent polls are from right biased sources, 538 specifically calls out Trafalgar, but Fabrizio is also problematic, so is Redfield, and “Patriot Polling” seems obvious to me.

There’s lots of talk about Republican pollsters “flooding the zone”, so the results out of AZ, GA, NC may look more Trump friendly than reality.

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Imagine having, again, every advantage in the world, media support, celebrity endorsements, multiple republican endorsements, a huge war chest and somehow still losing to a carnival barker.