“Let’s nominate someone indicted for fraud. That doesn’t make me look suspicious at all.”
TL;DR: I think it’s a play to help Trump (if that’s even possible) at taxpayer expense.
Another way to look at it, is that she and the Freedom Caucus are trying to make it impossible to fill the speaker position. Last time took 15 tries over 4 days. We have a pro-tempore speaker, but legislation will take a back seat to filling the Gavelmeister (I mean speaker).
This data is from Sept. 20 https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-margin-numbers-dg/index.html
-
31 far-right Republicans who have repeatedly voted against McCarthy
-
18 moderate Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020
-
172 other Republicans
-
212 Democrats
-
2 vacancies
That’s 435 seats (2 vacant). From 2001 to 2021, the Senate spent an average of 164 days in session each year, and the House spent an average of 149 days in session (source https://ballotpedia.org/117th_Congress_legislative_calendar). The annual salary of a rank-and-file Member of Congress is $174,000 (source: https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2019/02/21/how-much-do-members-of-congress-get-paid-2/)
So each day of this clusterbuck, each member of congress is getting just over $1,167. Multiply that by 433 (the number of filled seats in Congress) and we spend $505,651 or half-a-million dollars each day for congress to twiddle their thumbs. It cost the US taxpayer more than 2 million dollars to elect McCarthy, and now we’re going to pay to find a replacement.
While the republicans have the majority, it is fractured by extremists and moderates. The democrats won’t vote for an extremist republican, so most likely 212 (Dem) + 18 moderates = 230 Nay, even if 172 others + 31 extremists say yea, the vote fails. But if the 31 extremists say nay to a moderate, it’s going to take democrats reaching across the aisle, and then Gaetz plays the ouster card again.
We have a continuation resolution to keep the Government going for 45 days, or until Nov. 14. If The Freedom Caucus keeps the speaker position churning, the government may shut down because they are too busy playing “who gets the gavel?”. The far right is pushing to cut funding for the F.B.I. and the Justice Department (source https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/us/politics/trump-house-budget-fbi-republicans.html) because this could help save Trump. But even if they got what they wanted now, I don’t see New York stopping their trial, and I don’t see Georgia just rolling over. Trump’s bacon is being held to the fire. All the Freedom Caucus is doing is creating Chaos. I could hope their supporters would see this as an expensive Hail Mary, but I doubt it; they will probably get re-elected and this circus will continue.
Bluntly, I don’t think he’d accept the job, because it involves a hell of a lot more actual work than the comically small amount of actual job-related stuff he did while being president, and it’s not something he can skate by on. If he is elected to the speakership and then just doesn’t show up… the House can’t do anything. Which, sure, might be the point, but it would also be extremely obvious that they’re just throwing rocks in the gears, and it’d be essentially impossible to convince anyone with more than a couple brain cells that it’s because of Democrats - and translated into the context of the American electorate, that means it’s a toss-up.
-
I am eager to see how all of this plays out.
We effectively have three parties now. There’s the Democrats, the Republicans, and the MAGA extremists. The problem is that the MAGA extremists are simultaneously a much smaller group than either of the two major parties while also being juuuuuust large enough to make sure that neither one of the other two parties actually have a controlling majority.
Somewhat ironically, our system actually was designed to handle this. The entire system was designed so everybody involved would negotiate, compromise, and elect one speaker that everybody can at least agree with. Theoretically, we should be able to handle this without issue. The problem is that our system was barely able to handle a two-party system where both sides dig in their heels, double down, and view any concession at all as a “loss” rather than compromise and negotiate, because at least one side could use its majority to push something through one way or another.
But now we effectively have a three party system. Our system was not designed to handle a situation where three parties refuse to negotiate or compromise over virtually anything, but none have enough of a majority to push anything through. Especially when one of the three sides has openly stated their intent to just watch the whole thing burn.
One of three things is going to have to happen.
-
The MAGA wing eventually backs down. IMO, doing this would effectively kill whatever influence they have even in their own party as backing down would make this entire ordeal a bigger waste of time than it already is. This would probably lead to the return of Kevin McCarthy as speaker with MTG’s hand crammed right up his ass, but only this time even more emboldened as he would no longer have to worry about the deals he made to get the speaker’s gavel in the first place.
-
Moderate Republicans are going to have to work with Democrats to get Democrat support for a moderate Republican speaker. However, doing so is guaranteed to come with a whole new list of heavy concessions that would be all but politically suicidal for a Republican to accept. This would also make it nigh-impossible to govern as the Speaker would have the impossible task of balancing the wants of his own party with whatever deal he’d be forced to make with Democrats in order to get the position. (This idea would also be untenable to Democrats, as they’d have no power to enforce whatever agreement they would make once the new speaker is installed, and there would be nothing stopping a new speaker from just telling Democrats where they can shove their agreement.)
-
Moderate Republicans double-down on their refusal to work with Democrats and instead begrudgingly accept a MAGA-endorsed candidate on MAGA terms just so someone gets the gavel. This would effectively put us right back where we started, with either Kevin McCarthy as speaker or someone worse than Kevin McCarthy, and just like he was, they’d have the Sword of MAGA swinging over their heads forcing him to do their bidding whether he wants to or not. This would significantly embolden the MAGA party, as they would be able to say “You will do what we say or we will oust you just like we did McCarthy”. People like MTG would become exponentially more insufferable than they already are with that kind of power in their hands.
Get the popcorn ready. This is gonna be one hell of a ride.
We need something akin to a “vote of no confidence” when Congress refuses to work.
You didn’t pass a budget? Great, we get to elect new people who will.
There needs to be some sort of consequences for not governing.
There were consequences…but they involved the 2nd amendment. The militarization of local police in the 90s made sure that will never again be possible.
-
