Its merely an alternative to the existing US model of financial credit. The “nightmare” is only real for people who enjoy high levels of disposable income/high credit but low levels of social status. And, given how social status is already a critical component of one’s economic standing, this just isn’t a large number of people.

Are you sure it’s only real for high-income/low social status people? Even if so it won’t stay that way. The main goal of dystopian politics in America is to cull the herd of demand when supply is low or when supply is artificially suppressed (like with housing). Got too many people with money and great credit pursuing homes with houses going up to a godzillion per square foot in the outback of Montana? Pinch the pipeline before or after they show good credit and money: add more barriers to entry with Facebook scanning. Let the algorithms look for things like “labor union” or “climate change is real” to weed them out, and disqualify anyone with no Facebook, and make sure no one knows this algorithm exists, just say “Sorry, you got outbid,” Hell, don’t even CALL it a social credit system. Let the conspiracy theorists battle each other over what’s going on.

(Yes, I am a Supervillain University Professor. See my course on how to laugh maniacally and be taken seriously.)

I’d further calibrate what you said to this: the solution in the US is to organize with your fellow Americans at large and vote for politicians who will stop the commodification of empty homes before the powers that be start downgrading your standing as a prospective home buyer based on your Facebook profile.

I think this is presuming a heavily overengineered model that fixates on things other than “How high can I raise your rent right now?” So long as eviction laws are loose enough, there are plenty of landlords who will find ways to make money by simply withholding your deposits and evicting you on short notice. What’s more, there’s been a growing trend of predator application processes, wherein landlords charge a vig to even consider you for their residence and make money keeping spots open indefinitely as bait.

Oh yeah there is definitely that, too.

If we want to get really sci-fi horror, I more see a future in which landlords find a way of sticking tenants with fees and collections long after that person has left the unit. Also, the increased slum-ification of existing housing, as big corporate landlords cut further and further back on maintenance.

Not sure I see a path to fees and collections after a person has left their rental, but I 150% believe that they can and will do their best to find a way.

“Living in the pods” is the real sci-fi nightmare. Paying thousands a month to effectively lease a bunk in a contract that affords a landlord direct access to all your incomes and assets indefinitely. That’s the horror story I’m more worried about than anything.

I do absolutely agree with the right-now horror stories that you’re bringing up. Those are already in our face. Particularly the 200 sq ft apartment. In Hong Kong they have workers living/renting in literal rabbit hutches.

Still, I believe the Dark Mirror-style social credit score will come into existence. They’ve already tried it in America, it was called “Peeple” and it failed. For now. Meanwhile, across the Pacific:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2019/01/21/chinese-social-credit-score-utopian-big-data-bliss-or-black-mirror-on-steroids/#:~:text=If an individual has a,tickets or renting an apartment.

If an individual has a lower social credit score, they might find their ability to purchase what they want such as high-quality goods or a new home to be restricted. They might also be prohibited from buying airline and train tickets or renting an apartment. Some people with low social credit scores can expect to be blocked from dating sites and not be able to enroll their children in a school of their choice.

A social credit score affecting your ability to rent an apartment. This is the nightmare I described. It’s happening right now at this moment in China.

We can’t ever say “that can’t happen here” when it’s already happening elsewhere. We have to be vigilant. What’s going on in China is a Beta rollout. When it gets here it’ll be smoothed out and optimized for maximum suffering.

Zoning is irrelevant. Perfect zoning laws could mean 10x the houses - and the investors will buy them all up and supercharge property prices all over again.

The dystopian horror I see coming is is if you have no social media, you have no online reputation to boost your standing / social credit score. The landlord sees you as anti-social and will dock your rental bid score bigly for that. After all you might be anti-social and that Karen/Daren landlord doesn’t want that! (Yes, asshole dirtbag logic in general is endemic to Capitalism.)

The 2nd dial-to-11 factor of my prediction is not that you need a steady job - it’s that if (for instance) you work as a screenwriter with 10 years of rock solid employment, you just took a huge hit to your “rental bid score” because in this dystopian scenario the landlord’s arbitrary algorithm has decided that automation/AI is threatening to make your job redundant in the near future (whether or not this is true). Plus said algorithm is opaque and unknowable so you will have no idea why it rejected you… kinda like job applicants of today.

Also today you need one or two referrals from your landlords and maybe also a family member. In the dystopian future I see coming, the more friends and bosses and such that you have to vouch for you, the higher your rental bid score will be. References from two landlords and a family member are trumped by refs from 3 landlords, your coworkers, your boss, and your family.

Overall? What I see coming is landlords will use unaccountable algorithms which want to know every tiny thing about you and they will tweak that algorithm in unknowable ways to judge your fitness as a renter using 29 (or more) additional dimensions than they do now. Most of the time they’ll use it to sell your personal information and have no intent of renting the place out at all. We’re sliding in that general direction now with rental scams driven by the actual landlords. Plus on top of that there absolutely will be a brutally insidious “set your own rental price” encouraging rental applicants to bid to the moon.

I expect most who read this to say this is out of this world sci-fi overexaggeration. Our grandkids will call it reality. Rental bidding is already here on a small scale. The thin end of the wedge is already in the door.

Greetings from the average American family 20 minutes in your future:

Rents have gotten so expensive now that national bidding companies have arisen to address the crisis. Now renters can decide their own prices by bid-scoring on property and rental housing. Average monetary bid on housing in Austin is $5000 for a bachelor’s pad but the money is only part of the bid-score. It also includes the usual credit rating and income reporting, but also your social media connections, the stability of your job (calculated by opaque market analysis firms), letters of recommendation from your employer, friends and family, and your overall “social credit” score (how many people give you 5-stars on every day interactions?).

This actually turned out to be an incredible democratization of housing! Landlords no longer control rents! We now have 1.2 million homeless in America but hey that’s their faults for being poor, working jobs vulnerable to automation and offshoring, and especially the shut-ins, glad to see we’re flushing them out and forcing them to socialize and be popular, or get thrown into the streets!

I love this country!

Chapter 1 from “Not Your Parents’ Dystopia”, coming to your reality soon!

“Housing addiction: the next drug war.” - Republicans/Capitalists