Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
Kamala will probably win the popular vote, but Trump will take the presidency either through a technical, electoral college win, or a supreme court decision.
If Kamala somehow wins the popular vote and the electoral college, expect more violence. Probably large scale organized violence like we saw in 2021, but also increases in mass shootings and hate crimes. Unless she wins by a landslide (which is very unlikely) the supreme court will likely be involved and the process will drag on into at least January, if not longer. The court will probably find or invent a legal position that gives Trump the presidency anyway.
No matter who is president, Americans living in red states are fucked and any Palestinians living in Gaza are probably going to be killed.
A Trump presidency would be bad for every American and every person living where the US has influence. If the Republicans also take control of congress when they elect Trump, it’s probable that would be the end of the United States as we know it. Trump dismantled a lot of important parts of the administrative state that keeps the gears of government turning during his first presidency. A second round in office, with the other two branches in his pocket, would give him the chance to completely gut the institutions of the united states until the presidency controls everything at the national level.
We would probably see a national abortion ban, a ban on transgender care for adults and minors, the gutting of civil rights protections, most government services privatized, the destruction of countless government agencies and a purge of anyone who might object to any of that.
A Harris presidency would stall some of the efforts of the fascist takeover of the United States but not even a majority of those efforts. Republican controlled states would go into overdrive with their destabilizing agendas. Life will become a lot worse for anyone who isn’t a cishet white man living but has the misfortune of living in Maga country.
The good news is regardless of the outcome Trump won’t be involved in the 2028 presidential election, if we have one. He’s old enough and senile enough that he won’t be in any shape to govern by then so at least we get some new horrors to look forward to.
Whoever wins … the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.
If America doesn’t get its act together during this election … it’s just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won’t be a war or anything too dramatic … it will just look and sound like a never ending slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.
No matter who “wins election” Americans will lose
I’ve got a feeling we’ll see Bush v. Gore style recount shenanigans or worse. Trumpist “stop the steal” people have begun to infiltrate the election process, right?
Right, and it’s possible that what’s really happened outdistances what’s publicly known.
I still like to believe that our systems are resilient against such shenanigans, that Georgia Court just threw out some sketchy b******* that Trump affiliated election officials were trying to pull. Literally every Trump court case fell on its face last time around.
But I’m a lot more worried now. When the history of this election’s written, something we never thought of is going to turn out to be one of the most important events in history.
I’m not saying this will literally happen, but this is kind of what I think: some random election clerk in North Carolina is allowed to trigger a freeze on the counting of votes based on their ‘reasonable suspicion’, and after recounts and delays, it starts trending Kamala’s way, so they never complete the account. The Supreme Court invents some new legal doctrine that says we can’t allow the paralysis of one state to prevent the determination of a winner, the court throws it to the House of Representatives, the house holds the vote open for 16 hours until Trump wins, with God knows what violence and rallies and stuff happening outside.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
So basically “how to speedrun dictatorship”
Very plausible. If you need any recipes for when the California vegetables stops coming HMU, I’ve made a project out of it.
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.
The material conditions aren’t ripe for a civil war just yet, nor for a revolution. Things have not gotten dire for the US Empire abroad just yet.
I’m in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it’s close, I’m not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.
These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.
While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.
Violence.
I mean, we’re already a capitol storming and a few assassination attempts in. You need to be a bit more specific.
It’s a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I’m hearing.
Harris by a landslide. I’m optimistic and am choosing to have faith in at least some of mankind.
Trump is power hungry while simultaneously old and simple minded. I remember Jan 6. I followed live feeds throughout and immediately after. I watched Trump’s speech, the riot it caused. I watched Ashli Babbitt die on some guy’s go pro.
I keep asking myself how in the hell Trump is even still in the running. What the fuck is wrong with his supporters?
Please get out and vote Harris! Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN. We need women in power. Look what men have done <gestures broadly>. She happens to be a good one, of course a politician, but she’s won my confidence. Over Trump it was an easy win.
I think she will win but I don’t think it will be a landslide. I hope so, but there’s a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
Harris wins comfortably. Lots of lawsuits. Even more violence.
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
You’re not wrong, it’s because leftists are generally more critical of gambling.
Gamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
