For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
Except that isn’t true. In 2020, 2/3rds of eligible voters voted. Which, if your math is rusty, is a healthy majority of people.
I mean, if this is correct, polls showing trump ahead should depress Right votes which I presume we agree is a good thing. (Though, this seems counter to the whole narrative about Republican pollsters flooding the zone.)
I dunno, it really seems like you have a lot of problems with polls that are simply misunderstanding, like not knowing how aggregation works, not understanding what a probabilistic prediction is or just ignoring reality (like the impressive number of accurate predictions in most cycles.)
I think to dislike something, you should be moderately informed about it. Your attitude to polling feels a bit like right wing attitudes towards lgbtq stuff “I don’t get it, I don’t want to learn about it so I dislike it!”
And this is where I call it. You’re saying my (rightful) distrust of polling is comparable to straight up bigotry? They are not even close to the same thing, and honestly as a queer it’s pretty disgusting to see you bring up something that I’ve battled against my entire life all so you can feel like you’re the smartest one in the room.
I now see that you don’t really give a shit, and just want desperately to be right. I don’t need to talk to you about this any more.