In most cases, it’s a slam dunk win unless things went really wrong. (say a pandemic)
I think people are severely overestimating how much of an impact being an incumbent actually has with the final results. In smaller elections this definitely has a big impact, but in the entirety of the US history we’ve only had 27 presidents run for reelection, and 9 of them have lost.
That’s a ~67% win rate for incumbent presidents, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either, and with a terrible sample size.
67% is massive what are you talking about? When you were gearing up for it I thought you were going to give away lower number and then you said that holy crap. Now I’m even more convinced he should still run.
I think people are severely overestimating how much of an impact being an incumbent actually has with the final results. In smaller elections this definitely has a big impact, but in the entirety of the US history we’ve only had 27 presidents run for reelection, and 9 of them have lost.
That’s a ~67% win rate for incumbent presidents, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either, and with a terrible sample size.
67% is massive what are you talking about? When you were gearing up for it I thought you were going to give away lower number and then you said that holy crap. Now I’m even more convinced he should still run.